01 Price Trend: Exceeding Expectations

After a deep adjustment lasting more than two years, lithium hexafluorophosphate has finally emerged from its trough and experienced a rapid upward trend in October 2025.

According to market data, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained above 100,000 RMB per ton for four consecutive days from October 28 to 31.

Calculated from the annual low, this rebound is even more impressive. From the year's low of 49,800 RMB per ton on July 18, as of October 31, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has increased by over 120% in less than four months, making it a standout performer among the four major lithium battery materials.

An executive from Tianji Shares stated at an earnings briefing, "The current price trend is better than expected." While market expectations previously suggested prices would drop in November as production from smaller manufacturers increased, this now appears unlikely, with projections indicating prices will continue to rise from November through December.

02 Driving Factors: Shift in Supply-Demand Dynamics

The rapid price increase of lithium hexafluorophosphate is primarily due to a fundamental improvement in supply-demand relations.

On the supply side, after a prolonged period of low prices, inefficient production capacity has been largely phased out. Tianji Shares revealed that its lithium hexafluorophosphate production is currently at full capacity and completely sold out, with inventory dropping to very low levels—only a few hundred tons—and all production lines operating at full capacity.

On the demand side, the explosive growth of the power battery and energy storage markets has become the core driving force. From January to September 2025, China's installed capacity of power batteries for new energy vehicles reached 494.10GWh, a year-on-year increase of 42.52%; during the same period, shipments of energy storage lithium batteries reached 430GWh, a surge of 99.07% year-on-year.

In an October 30 report, Longzhong Information analysis pointed out that lithium hexafluorophosphate is in short supply, demand for downstream electrolyte remains strong, and the recent improvement in the industry's structural overcapacity problem.

03 Corporate Response: Full Production, Tighter Contracts

In response to changing market supply and demand, leading lithium hexafluorophosphate companies are adjusting their business strategies.

Several leading listed companies have stated that current production is basically at full capacity and completely sold out, and they hold an optimistic outlook for demand in the first quarter of next year.

Given the relatively high certainty, leading companies have slightly tightened commercial terms for long-term agreements. Do-Fluoride revealed that "in the current market environment, companies in the industry are generally reluctant to sign long-term orders. If a long-term cooperation agreement is to be reached, the price discount is small, and to ensure cooperation stability, partners need to pay a certain advance payment."

Tianji Shares stated that due to the current strong market demand and short supply of lithium hexafluorophosphate, the company's pricing principle for core customers is discussed monthly. While striving to ensure supply to core customers, prices are given a certain discount based on the actual market price.

04 Industry Outlook: Rational Increase, Unlikely to Surge

Despite the rapid price increase, the industry generally believes that this round of price growth is different from that between late 2020 and early 2022, and a surge like in the previous industry cycle is unlikely to recur.

Do-Fluoride estimates that the demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate in October remained strong, with growth expected to slow down by the end of the year. While the demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate is highly certain, price fluctuations will tend to be more rational.

At the performance briefing, Tianci Materials stated that from the perspective of market supply and demand, the core raw material lithium hexafluorophosphate has reached a tight balance, and the industry has begun to improve significantly from the bottom stage.

Future supply increments will mainly come from leading enterprises, and industry concentration is expected to further increase.

Capchem also believes that the lithium hexafluorophosphate market in 2026 will be characterized by "tight supply and demand, and a rational return of prices."

The impending expiration of subsidy policies for new energy vehicles is expected to further stimulate production and sales growth at year-end due to the "race for subsidies" effect. The grid-connection delivery pressure in the energy storage market is also causing concentrated release of demand.

Central China Securities pointed out that in the short term, the prices of lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolytes may continue to rise. However, the extent and duration of this round of price increases will differ from the rise between late 2020 and early 2022.